CCHE Seminar Series: Estimating the Economic and Health Consequences of Public Health Measures

Vivek Goel, Kevin Bryan, Laura Rosella, Emmalin Buajitti
University of Toronto

Friday October 2, 2020, 10am-12pm, Zoom

Abstract: Wide-ranging, interventions have been implemented to slow COVID-19 transmission, with significant impact on the economy and unemployment the Canadian population. We model these restrictions as shocks to productivity by sector, and trace through the indirect effects of these shocks in equilibrium using techniques from production network economics.  We then use well-calibrated estimates of productivity shocks in March 2020, and validated population risk tools for downstream health effects, to simultaneously investigate lockdown policy in terms of GDP, employment, and long-term health. When considering multiple factors we found that, it is important to keep upstream sectors like transportation, manufacturing, and wholesale open rather than consumer-facing sectors like retail and restaurants.

Vivek Goel is Special Advisor to the President and Provost at the University of Toronto and a Professor in the Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health. Kevin Bryan is an Assistant Professor of Strategic Management at the University of Toronto, and a Lab Economist at the Creative Destruction Lab. Laura Rosella is an Associate Professor in the Dalla Lana School of Public Health. Emmalin Buajitti is a Research Officer in the Dalla Lana School of Public Health.